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Success doesn’t necessarily require trying

2010-04-08

To start the blog, I may as well start with a fallacy from a long time ago as we have plenty of time to catch up with modern fallacious reasoning.

Captain Euan Wallace was MP for Hornsey in 1935 and gave the following answer in his role as the President of the Board of Trade to Mr Thomas Williams:

The fact that we have negotiated 19 successful agreements shows that we have made a very large number of proposals.

It shows no such thing at all. The fact that the government in 1935 negotiated 19 successful trade agreements doesn’t mean that they have made a large number of proposals for trade. They may have made as few as nineteen and been exceptionally lucky in having all nineteen proposals successfully agreed upon.

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